Resumo O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar um método de previsão de safra para arroz irrigado por inundação no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, por meio do modelo SimulArroz. Utilizou-se a versão 1.1 desse modelo e dados meteorológicos históricos, com seis cenários compostos pelos seguintes níveis de informação em campo: datas de semeadura (1 a 4) e número de cultivares e/ou ciclos de desenvolvimento (1 a 3) durante quatro safras (2014/2015 a 2017/2018). A raiz quadrada média do erro (RQME), para comparação da produtividade real com a produtividade simulada para o Rio Grande do Sul, foi de 618,3 e 1.024,8 kg ha−1, isto é, de 8 e 13%, respectivamente. A previsão de safra de arroz com aplicação do modelo SimulArroz e dados meteorológicos históricos para o Rio Grande do Sul apresenta boa capacidade preditiva quanto à produtividade, e o cenário recomendado para a previsão é o complex 1, com uso de três épocas de semeadura por local e das três cultivares mais representativas por região.

Abstract The objective of this work was to evaluate a flooded-rice yield forecasting method for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, using the SimulArroz model. Version 1.1 of this model and historical meteorological data were used, with six different scenarios composed of the following levels of field information: number of sowing dates (1 to 4) and number of cultivars and/or development cycles (1 to 3) during four growing seasons (2014/2015 to 2017/2018). The root mean square error (RMSE) for comparing the actual yield with the simulated yield for Rio Grande do Sul was of 618.3 and 1,024.8 kg ha−1, i.e., of 8 and 13%, respectively. The forecast of rice yield by applying the SimulArroz model and historic meteorological data for Rio Grande do Sul shows a good predictability, and the recommended scenario is complex 1, using three sowing dates per site and the three most representative rice cultivars per region.

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to create a single mathematical equation able to estimate the leaf area of different cassava cultivars from one lineal dimension without destroying any plant tissue. Two hundred leaves per cultivar from ten cultivars were used to calibrate the model and more than one hundred leaves per cultivar were used to test its predictive capacity as independent data. All equations were the result of the nonlinear correlation between the leaf area and the length of its central lobe. To validate it as a “general” equation, another set of five cultivars were used. A “specific” equation for each cultivar was also calibrated to compare with the “general” equation’s performance. Cultivar Vassourinha has remarkably different leaf morphology from the other nine cultivars, making the “general” equation’s tendency line deviate and lowering its coefficient of determination. Therefore, one more equation was generated excluding that cultivar and, as a result, it was not possible to estimate the leaf area from all the cultivars using only the “general” equation. The “general without Vassourinha” equation has a high accuracy level when estimating leaf area of the other nine cultivars, plus the extra five cultivars that were included to validate the general equation; all of them present similar leaf morphology. Due to its importance, Vassourinha cultivar’s “specific” equation should be used when estimating leaf area for this cultivar or other cultivars with similar leaf morphology.

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi modelar, no modelo SimulArroz, as três cultivares de arroz (Oryza sativa) irrigado atualmente mais cultivadas no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Os experimentos para calibrar e validar o modelo foram conduzidos nos municípios de Cachoeirinha, Santa Maria, Uruguaiana, Santa Vitória do Palmar e Cachoeira do Sul, durante quatro safras. Foram avaliados o número de folhas, a fenologia, a biomassa da matéria seca da parte aérea e a produtividade de cada cultivar. Os resultados mostraram uma leve superestimativa dos estádios R1, R4 e R9; no entanto, no geral, o modelo SimulArroz apresentou bom desempenho na simulação da fenologia do arroz para os três genótipos estudados. Além disso, o modelo teve uma precisão razoável em simular matéria seca da parte aérea e produtividade. A raiz quadrada do erro quadrático médio (RMSE) para matéria seca da parte aérea (folhas, caules, panículas e grãos) variou de 0,5 a 3,0 Mg ha-1. Para produtividade, a RMSE variou de 0,8 a 1,3 Mg ha-1. A calibração do modelo SimulArroz é eficiente em simular o crescimento, o desenvolvimento e a produtividade de grãos das cultivares de arroz irrigado mais importantes no Sul do Brasil e pode ser utilizada para estimar a previsão de safra e o potencial de produtividade, bem como para estudos de lacunas de produtividade.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to model, in the SimulArroz model, the three flood-irrigated rice (Oryza sativa) cultivars currently most grown in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The experiments to calibrate and validate the model were conducted in the municipalities of Cachoeirinha, Santa Maria, Uruguaiana, Santa Vitória do Palmar, and Cachoeira do Sul during four crop seasons. The number of leaves, phenology, aboveground dry matter biomass, and yield of each cultivar were evaluated. The results showed a slight overestimate of the R1, R4, and R9 stages; however, overall, the SimulArroz model had a good performance in simulating rice phenology for the three studied genotypes. Furthermore, the model had a reasonable accuracy in simulating aboveground dry matter and yield. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for aboveground dry matter (leaves, stems, panicles, and grains) ranged from 0.5 to 3.0 Mg ha-1. For yield, the RMSE ranged from 0.8 to 1.3 Mg ha-1. The calibration of the SimulArroz model is efficient in simulating the growth, development, and grain yield of the most important flood-irrigated rice cultivars in Southern Brazil and can be used to estimate harvest forecast and yield potential, as well for yield gap studies.